Arsenal stand on the brink of ending a 22-year Premier League title drought as the 2025-26 season reaches its midway point. A seven-point lead—stretched by rivals’ weekend stumbles—positions Mikel Arteta’s side as clear favourites. Manchester City’s derby defeat, Liverpool’s disappointing draw, and Aston Villa’s home loss to Everton all played into the Gunners’ hands. With the tightest defence and favourable underlying metrics, Arsenal face a pivotal question: will they seize this prime chance, or let it slip like past near-misses?
How the Weekend Unfolded
Arsenal’s goalless draw at Nottingham Forest felt frustrating in isolation—back-to-back 0-0 results raising attacking concerns. Yet the broader picture favoured them decisively.
Manchester City succumbed to local rivals Manchester United, marking a fourth consecutive winless outing. Liverpool, defending champions, managed only a draw against struggling Burnley at Anfield, falling 14 points adrift. Aston Villa’s 11-match home winning run ended against resilient Everton.
These results transformed Arsenal’s position from vulnerable to commanding. Arteta’s pragmatic approach—prioritising clean sheets—proves effective against inconsistent challengers.
Current Premier League Standings (Mid-January 2026)
| Position | Team | Points | Games Played | Goal Difference | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | ~55 | ~22 | +25 | Seven-point lead; best defence |
| 2 | Manchester City | ~48 | ~22 | +20 | Winless in four; derby loss |
| 3 | Aston Villa | ~47 | ~22 | +18 | Home streak ended |
| 4 | Liverpool | ~41 | ~22 | +15 | Poor title defence; 14 points behind |
(Note: Approximate figures based on described weekend outcomes.)
Arsenal’s defensive record—fewest goals conceded—provides the foundation. Rivals lack sustained momentum to mount serious pressure.
Why This Feels Like Arsenal’s Moment
History favours teams leading expected goals (xG) difference, with Arsenal topping metrics for chance creation and concession. Past seasons saw xG leaders claim the title in three of four years (Manchester City’s 2023-24 win the exception despite Arsenal’s edge).
City’s dip from previous dominance and Liverpool’s miserable defence open the door. Villa’s overperformance suggests potential regression.
Arteta’s squad—balanced, deep, injury-light—possesses tools for a sustained push. Recent draws reflect caution, but points accumulated matter most.
Remaining Challenges and Opportunities
Arsenal face no immediate crises, unlike rivals navigating injuries and form dips. Upcoming fixtures allow consolidation, with defensive solidity likely yielding results.
Attacking concerns—two goalless games—require addressing, but clinical moments from players like Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard remain potent.
A Season of Destiny?
Arsenal have finished runners-up three straight seasons, building progressively under Arteta. This campaign offers the clearest path yet—no dominant City, faltering Liverpool.
Regrets would run deep if slipped. Fans sense opportunity: control destiny amid rivals’ stumbles.
As spring approaches, Arsenal’s resolve faces test. Current evidence leans strongly toward a title charge—potentially ending the long wait since 2004’s Invincibles.
This Premier League race captivates with its openness. Arsenal hold the aces; execution will decide if glory follows.
